Your carrier just dropped an estimate written from satellite photos. The roof is bad — they agree. But the number on the page doesn't come close to what the job actually costs. Welcome to claims in 2026.
This isn't a lazy adjuster. It's a system built for speed, and speed leaves money on the table. The good news: that money is recoverable. It's called a supplement, and in 2026 it isn't optional. It's the difference between a profitable storm job and a break-even headache.
I'm Chaz Jaco, founder of ESXPress. I've built this business on one workflow: take the carrier's PDF scope, convert it to Xactimate ESX, and find every line the original missed. Here's what changed in 2026, what satellite estimates skip, and how to build a supplement that gets paid.
Key Insight: The 2026 Verisk U.S. Roof Report shows average residential replacement costs jumped 33% and repair costs climbed 25% in 2025 versus the prior four-year average. Carriers are writing initial estimates faster than ever — often from satellite imagery with no ladder set. Industry tracking shows the first scope typically lands at 50–65% of true job cost. A supplement is how you close that gap.
Why Initial Estimates Keep Shrinking
Three things changed at once.
- Satellite-first scoping. Carriers write the first pass from imagery. In April 2026, Roofr and Verisk announced a partnership pushing measurement data straight into Xactimate workflows. Faster estimates, faster claim closure — and zero visibility into what the imagery can't see.
- Data-first claims. Industry analysis puts the share of major carriers using a data-first property claims model above 85% by 2026. The initial estimate is now a starting point, not a settlement.
- Quieter storm years, sharper scrutiny. Q1 2026 catastrophe claims fell nearly 10% from the prior year, but average severity stayed elevated. Fewer claims means every claim gets looked at harder.
What Satellite Estimates Can't See
Satellite imagery sees the top of the roof. That's it. It can't see:
- Decking that's rotted, delaminated, or needs replacing
- Missing or torn ice and water shield at the eaves and valleys
- Step flashing pulled away from the wall
- Damaged pipe boots, ridge vents, and intake vents
- A second layer hiding under the top layer
- Code upgrades your jurisdiction requires — tear-off, underlayment, fasteners
- The actual condition of gutters, fascia, and soffit
Every one of those is a legitimate line item. None of them show up in the initial satellite scope. Your supplement is the paperwork that puts them in.
The Real Numbers: What Supplements Recover
Let's talk actual dollars. These are figures published by supplement services and licensed independent adjusters tracking real 2026 claims:
| Metric | Number | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Average supplement value per roofing claim | $7,000–$8,000 | IA Solutions (licensed adjusters), Apr 2026 |
| Initial scope vs. actual job cost | 50–65% (35–50% left on the table) | ScopeBack supplement data |
| Average value of commonly missed line items | $4,247 per job | ScopeBack tracking data |
| Typical supplement increase above initial estimate | 20–30% | RISE supplement benchmarks |
| Average payout boost with performance-based supplementing | +28% | Estimate on Demand, Jan 2026 |
| Residential replacement cost increase, 2025 vs. prior 4-year average | +33% | Verisk 2026 U.S. Roof Report |
| Repair cost increase, 2025 vs. prior 4-year average | +25% | Verisk 2026 U.S. Roof Report |
| Major carriers on data-first claims | 85%+ | 1ESX industry guide, 2026 |
Here's what those numbers mean on a real job. A $25,000 roof replacement scoped by satellite at $14,000 isn't a $14,000 claim. It's an opening offer. The $7,000–$8,000 average supplement is the same roof, documented correctly.
The 33% Problem: Your Price List Is Newer Than Their Scope
Here's the part most contractors miss. Verisk's 2026 report says replacement costs ran 33% higher in 2025 than the prior four-year average. Carriers reprice constantly — Xactimate price lists update on a regular cycle, and the list in their file isn't necessarily the list in your Xactimate.
When you import an ESX file, Xactimate reprices every line against the price list loaded in your copy. That's by design. It means the same scope can total thousands more today than it did six months ago — legitimately, with zero extra line items. Supplement writers who understand this check the price list date on every claim. If the carrier's scope used an older list, the delta itself is a supplement line: price list update.
We call this the reprice trap, and it's the #1 surprise in PDF-to-ESX work. Our free Reprice Check tool shows the current-list price for any estimate line you paste in. Run the carrier's scope through it before you build anything.
Build the Supplement Like an Adjuster
Adjusters approve what they can verify. Every supplement needs three things: a priced scope, photo documentation, and a reason tied to the policy or code.
- Get the carrier's PDF scope. Request the full line-by-line, not the one-page summary.
- Convert it to Xactimate ESX. This is where we live. A clean PDF scope converts in about two minutes with the right tool — every line resolved against the SEL code dictionary, every price verified.
- Diff it against the roof. Walk the scope line by line. What did the imagery miss? What does the deck actually look like? What does code require?
- Price the additions at list. Use current price list codes — not guesses, not last year's numbers. In our world that's the OKTU8X_AUG26 list and its successors.
- Document everything. Dated photos of every deficiency. Manufacturer requirements where they apply. Code citations for upgrades.
- Write it in their language. F9 notes in Xactimate that explain the why. Line-item descriptions that match the adjuster's vocabulary.
Warning from the field: never let a line land on Xactimate's catch-all class. In our own import testing, an estimate with 41 unresolved lines on the catch-all re-priced from roughly $32,000 to $214,000 on import — because Xactimate re-prices those lines at its own class default. The fix is simple: keep the PDF price on the line and flag it UNRESOLVED. Same number, no surprise.
The Line Items That Win Supplements in 2026
These are the RFG-family codes we see recover money on nearly every storm job. All verified against current price list exports:
- Ice and water shield at eaves and valleys — RFG|IWS family
- Drip edge — RFG|DRIP, plus the DRIP10 and DRIPP variants
- Synthetic underlayment — RFG|FELT15
- Ridge cap and ridge vent — RFG|RIDGC, RFG|RIDGCS, and the ARMV ridge vent family (ARMV and its size-tier twin ARMV>)
- Steep and high factors — RFG|STEEP, RFG|HIGH
- Pipe flashing — RFG|FLPIPE
- Vent boots — RFG|VENTT and RFG|VENTR
- Starter course — RFG|ASTR-
- Shingle size tiers — RFG|300S, RFG|500S, RFG|240S
- Hail-resistant metal — RFG|HTMN
- Deck replacement — priced from the PDF scope, never guessed
That list alone routinely adds $4,000–$6,000 to a standard replacement claim. It also happens to be the exact list satellite imagery can't produce.
Verify Before You Submit
One bad number kills credibility. Run this checklist before any supplement goes out:
- Totals tie to the PDF scope — line by line, not eyeballed
- Zero lines on catch-all classes
- Every code exists in the current price list
- Photos are dated, named, and matched to line items
- F9 notes explain the why, not just the what
- You attached the original scope, the supplement, and the photos
FAQ
Why do 2026 initial estimates come in lower than before?
Carriers are writing first-pass estimates from satellite imagery and data-first models — fast, cheap, and blind to anything the imagery can't see. The initial scope is a starting point. Supplements are how the real scope gets paid.
What is the average supplement worth on a roofing claim?
Published 2026 figures from licensed independent adjusters put the average at $7,000–$8,000 per claim, with typical increases of 20–30% above the initial estimate. On a $25,000 replacement, that's $5,000–$7,500 in recoverable money.
Which line items are missed most in satellite-based scopes?
Deck replacement, ice and water shield, drip edge, flashing, ridge cap and vents, steep and high factors, and code upgrades. ScopeBack tracking data values the commonly missed items at an average of $4,247 per job.
How do I get a supplement approved the first time?
Price it in Xactimate with real price list codes, photo-document every line, and explain the why in F9 notes. Convert the carrier's PDF to ESX so your line items and theirs use identical codes — matching codes get approved; mismatched codes get questions.
Does converting the carrier's scope to ESX actually help?
Yes. When your supplement uses the same SEL codes, categories, and line structure as the carrier's own estimate, the desk adjuster can compare them side by side. That's the difference between a two-week approval and a two-month back-and-forth.
Bottom Line
2026 is the year of the satellite scope. Initial estimates will keep coming in low, and contractors who treat them as final numbers will keep eating the difference. The ones who win treat the first estimate as an opening offer — then document, price, and submit what the roof actually needs.
Ready to build a supplement that survives review? Start a free 14-day trial — convert your first estimate in about two minutes →
Review required: AI-assisted content requires professional review — verify every line item, price, and total against your actual scope before submission.