Every year, Verisk — the company behind Xactimate — publishes the numbers that decide what your claims are worth. The 2026 reports are out. They say two things at once: there are fewer roof claims to chase, and each claim is worth more than it has ever been.
That is a strange market to run a roofing company in. Fewer claims means every job matters more. Higher values mean the gap between a lazy estimate and a complete one is wider than ever — and that gap is your margin.
I am Chaz Jaco, co-founder of ESXPress. I work roof claims in Oklahoma. Here is what the 2026 data actually says, and how to use it on the claim sitting on your desk right now.
Key Insight: The average residential roof replacement claim hit $17,631 in 2025 — up 33% over the 2021–2024 average — even as claim volume kept falling (down 8.9% year over year in Q1 2026). Fewer claims, bigger checks. The contractors winning in 2026 recover full value per job instead of chasing more jobs.
The 2026 Numbers That Matter
These figures come from two Verisk publications: the 2026 U.S. Roof Report (May 2026) and the Q1 2026 Quarterly Property Report. They are national averages, and your market will differ. The direction is the same everywhere.
| Metric | 2026 Number | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Average roof replacement claim (2025) | $17,631, up 33% vs the 2021–2024 average | Verisk 2026 U.S. Roof Report |
| Average roof repair claim (2025) | $4,699, up 25% | Verisk 2026 U.S. Roof Report |
| Roofing's share of line items on property estimates | About 30% | Verisk 2026 U.S. Roof Report |
| U.S. claim volume (Q1 2026) | Down 8.9% year over year — fifth straight quarterly decline | Verisk Q1 2026 Quarterly Property Report |
| Average claim severity (Q1 2026) | $16,079, projected to mature to $17,687 | Verisk Q1 2026 Quarterly Property Report |
| How much claims mature after the first estimate | About +10% (Q4 2025 example: $17,167 to $18,910) | Verisk Q1 2026 Quarterly Property Report |
| Labor vs. material cost change, year over year | Labor +4.14%, materials +2.93% | Verisk Q1 2026 Quarterly Property Report |
| Reconstruction cost forecast (April to October 2026) | +1.8% | Verisk 360Value Market Expectations Index |
| States where severe hail hit 20%+ of roofs (2025) | 16 states, up from 12 — Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Arkansas on top | Verisk 2026 U.S. Roof Report |
What "Claims Mature About 10%" Really Means
The number to remember from the Q1 report: claims finish about 10% higher than their first estimate. Verisk measured Q4 2025 severity at $17,167 when first reported. Three months later, as the complex claims closed, it had matured to $18,910 — a 10.15% increase. Verisk now uses that 10% growth rate to forecast where new claims land.
Read that from the roofer's side of the table. The company that publishes the pricing is telling carriers that the final number on the average claim runs about 10% above where it starts. For complex storm claims — decking, code upgrades, multiple trades — the real gap runs higher.
That is not a loophole. It is documentation. The first estimate gets written fast, before anyone set a ladder. A clean supplement is how the paperwork catches up to the roof.
Fewer Claims, Higher Scrutiny
Q1 2026 claim assignments fell 8.9% year over year and landed 13% below the five-year average — the fifth straight quarter of decline. Hail claims dropped 23.6%. The share of roofs hit by two-inch-plus hail fell 59% compared with early 2025.
Fewer claims gives desk adjusters something new: time. Expect every submission to get read closely. Two things follow. Sloppy numbers get caught — inflated quantities and phantom lines slow everything down. Clean files move fast: industry timelines put a properly built Xactimate submission at two to three weeks to approval, versus six to eight weeks for a PDF or invoice-based request.
Roofs are overrepresented in that scrutiny too. Roofing is roughly 30% of the line items on a typical property estimate, so when a carrier tightens review, roofers feel it first.
The Price List Is a Moving Target
Xactimate price lists update monthly, and 2026 has been a mover. Labor costs rose 4.14% year over year. Materials rose 2.93%. January carried one of the largest single update jumps of the quarter. Fuel spiked 42.7% in Q1 — and labor rates lag fuel, so expect the pressure to keep showing up in later lists.
Verisk forecasts residential reconstruction costs to rise another 1.8% between April and October 2026. Put plainly: an estimate written in the spring is under-priced for work built in the fall. That gap does not disappear on its own. It either gets eaten by you, or recovered in a supplement.
One mechanic matters on every claim: Xactimate reprices a file against the price list loaded on the machine that receives it. If the adjuster opens your estimate with a different list edition, totals move. Match the list, document the line items, and let the file do the arguing. That is also why a scope can "change overnight" after an import — it repriced to the local list.
Where the Money Hides This Year
Severe hail spread in 2025. Sixteen states saw hail hit more than 20% of roofs, up from twelve the year before — Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Dakota and Arkansas at the top of the list. Two facts collide in those states. First, 57% of roofs there are nine years old or older, compared with 38% elsewhere — exactly the age range where the repair-versus-replace fight happens. Second, the report ties moderate-to-poor roof condition to roughly 60% higher loss costs.
Old roofs in hail country are where scopes go wrong. The misses cluster the same way every time:
- Decking. Sheathing prices fell 9.55% last year, so some desks now treat decking like a rounding error. The panel got cheaper. The tear-off and install labor did not. Photograph the deck, count the sheets, write the line.
- Ice and water shield at eaves, valleys and penetrations — frequently skipped or quoted short (RFGIWS).
- Drip edge (RFGDRIP), step flashing at walls, and pipe boots (PNTRJACK). Small dollars each. Real dollars together.
- Ventilation quantities — ridge vent cut to a guess instead of the actual ridge length, intake vents counted wrong.
- Code requirements — fasteners, underlayment and ice-barrier rules your jurisdiction adopts. These are not opinions. They are the code book.
- Overhead and profit when the loss involves three or more trades, and waste or steep-pitch factors when the actual roof demands them.
The test for every line is the one a desk adjuster applies: is it real, is it documented, and does the code or the manufacturer require it? If the answer is yes, write it. If the answer is no, leave it off. Padding kills your credibility on the lines that matter.
What To Do Differently This Quarter
- Check the date on the price list before you agree with anything. A spring list on fall work is already stale.
- Rebuild the carrier's scope instead of retyping it. Same codes, same structure, apples to apples — and the comparison gets honest, fast.
- Document at tear-off. Decking, ice and water shield, flashing. Ten photos save a week of back-and-forth.
- Explain the why. F9 notes on added lines tell the adjuster what changed and why it belongs.
- Submit while the file is fresh. Supplements filed weeks later get reviewed like archaeology. File early, file once.
- Track your maturation rate. Industry-wide it runs about 10%. Yours is your own baseline — if it is lower, something is being left on the table.
Where ESXPress Fits
Everything above runs on one workflow: get the carrier's scope into Xactimate with the same codes and structure they used, so every comparison is clean. ESXPress converts carrier scope PDFs into Xactimate-ready .esx files — typically about two minutes per scope, up to 1,000 line items — keeping the line items, categories and notes aligned so your supplement and the carrier's estimate speak the same language.
To be clear about what that is: a conversion tool, not an adjusting service. Line items come out matched to Xactimate codes with high fidelity, and you review every line, price and total before anything is submitted. That review step is not a formality. It is the job.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much is the average roofing insurance claim worth in 2026?
Verisk's 2026 U.S. Roof Report puts the average residential roof replacement claim at $17,631 for 2025 — up 33% over the 2021–2024 average — and the average repair at $4,699, up 25%. For Q1 2026, average claim severity is tracking toward $17,687.
Why is the first estimate lower than my actual cost?
Two reasons. First estimates get written fast, often from satellite imagery, before anyone has been on the roof. And the industry's own data shows claims mature about 10% after the first estimate as the full scope gets documented. The supplement is the mechanism that closes the gap.
Do Xactimate price lists change every month?
Yes. Price lists update monthly, and 2026 has seen meaningful movement — labor up 4.14% year over year, materials up 2.93%, and a 42.7% fuel spike in Q1 that labor rates tend to lag. Always check which list edition an estimate was written on.
What line items should I double-check on every roof scope?
Decking replacement, ice and water shield at eaves and valleys, drip edge, step flashing, pipe boots, ridge and intake vent quantities, code-required underlayment and fasteners, and O&P when three or more trades are involved. Those are the lines that most often arrive missing.
What is the fastest way to check a carrier's estimate against current pricing?
Get the scope into Xactimate as a working file with the same codes and categories the carrier used, then compare line by line against the current price list. Converting the carrier's PDF to an .esx file takes about two minutes and puts both sides on the same structure.
Bottom Line
2026's data has one message for roofers: fewer jobs, bigger numbers, and less tolerance for guesses. The contractors who thrive in that market treat the first estimate as an opening position and document their way to the real one.
Ready to put the numbers to work? Start free — 5 conversions a month, no card — and convert your first carrier scope in about two minutes →
Review required: AI-assisted content requires professional review — verify every line item, price, and total against your actual scope before submission.